{
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    "dataset_id": "trading-card-pack-odds-database",
    "version": "2026.08.07-v1",
    "research_cutoff": "2026-08-07",
    "price_cutoff": "2026-08-07",
    "primary_keyword": "trading card pack odds",
    "target_url": "/learn/trading-card-pack-odds-database",
    "index_type": "evidence_dashboard_no_composite_score",
    "existing_odds_guide": "/learn/how-online-card-pack-odds-work",
    "conversion_target": "/packs",
    "existing_query_owners": {
      "best pokemon packs to buy": "/learn/best-pokemon-pack-to-buy",
      "pokemon pull rates": "/learn/pokemon-pack-pull-rates",
      "best baseball card packs to buy": "/learn/best-baseball-card-packs-to-buy",
      "best football card packs to buy": "/learn/best-nfl-card-packs-to-buy"
    },
    "changelog": [
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "note": "Initial 100-product audit universe. Prices and EV remain null until individually sourced."
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    "content_hash": "6f23e5f5784be26f7522ef2bc03457a078a3f9d0348731f84b610edbaf1131d5"
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      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2026_Topps_Baseball_Series_2_Odds.pdf?v=1781724617",
      "odds_source_sha256": "d3f924a9eb9835488ff68e28645a7c1baf7814114f2b14b7823fdaf880e18f6e",
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      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:15 for Base Cards Gold parallel in the exact Jumbo column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
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    {
      "product_id": "2026-topps-series-2-baseball-mega-ea",
      "category": "baseball",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2026 Topps Series 2 Baseball",
      "format": "Mega EA",
      "release_year": 2026,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
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      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
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      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
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      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": "Base Cards Gold parallel",
      "chase_probability": 0.023809523809523808,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 29,
      "packs_to_75": 58,
      "packs_to_90": 96,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
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      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
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      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2026_Topps_Baseball_Series_2_Odds.pdf?v=1781724617",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2026_Topps_Baseball_Series_2_Odds.pdf?v=1781724617",
      "odds_source_sha256": "d3f924a9eb9835488ff68e28645a7c1baf7814114f2b14b7823fdaf880e18f6e",
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      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:42 for Base Cards Gold parallel in the exact Mega EA column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2026-topps-series-2-baseball-value-box-ea",
      "category": "baseball",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2026 Topps Series 2 Baseball",
      "format": "Value Box EA",
      "release_year": 2026,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
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      "chase_definition": "Base Cards Gold parallel",
      "chase_probability": 0.02040816326530612,
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      "packs_to_50": 34,
      "packs_to_75": 68,
      "packs_to_90": 112,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
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      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2026_Topps_Baseball_Series_2_Odds.pdf?v=1781724617",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2026_Topps_Baseball_Series_2_Odds.pdf?v=1781724617",
      "odds_source_sha256": "d3f924a9eb9835488ff68e28645a7c1baf7814114f2b14b7823fdaf880e18f6e",
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      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:49 for Base Cards Gold parallel in the exact Value Box EA column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-26-bowman-basketball-breaker",
      "category": "basketball",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Bowman Basketball",
      "format": "Breaker",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
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      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
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      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": "Base Chrome Refractor",
      "chase_probability": 0.0036363636363636364,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 191,
      "packs_to_75": 381,
      "packs_to_90": 633,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
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      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Bowman_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1776281698",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Bowman_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1776281698",
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      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:275 for Base Chrome Refractor in the exact Breaker column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
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    {
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      "category": "basketball",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Bowman Basketball",
      "format": "Bulk",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "msrp_usd": null,
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      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Bowman_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1776281698",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Bowman_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1776281698",
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      "confidence_notes": "The official Topps PDF includes the Bulk configuration, but does not list Base Chrome Refractor for that column; no threshold is calculated."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-26-bowman-basketball-hobby",
      "category": "basketball",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Bowman Basketball",
      "format": "Hobby",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
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      "chase_definition": "Base Chrome Refractor",
      "chase_probability": 0.013333333333333334,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 52,
      "packs_to_75": 104,
      "packs_to_90": 172,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
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      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Bowman_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1776281698",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Bowman_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1776281698",
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      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:75 for Base Chrome Refractor in the exact Hobby column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-26-bowman-basketball-jumbo",
      "category": "basketball",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Bowman Basketball",
      "format": "Jumbo",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
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      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": "Base Chrome Refractor",
      "chase_probability": 0.038461538461538464,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 18,
      "packs_to_75": 36,
      "packs_to_90": 59,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
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      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Bowman_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1776281698",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Bowman_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1776281698",
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      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:26 for Base Chrome Refractor in the exact Jumbo column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
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    {
      "product_id": "2025-26-bowman-basketball-mega",
      "category": "basketball",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Bowman Basketball",
      "format": "Mega",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Bowman_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1776281698",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Bowman_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1776281698",
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      "confidence_notes": "The official Topps PDF includes the Mega configuration, but does not list Base Chrome Refractor for that column; no threshold is calculated."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-26-bowman-basketball-value",
      "category": "basketball",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Bowman Basketball",
      "format": "Value",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "chase_definition": "Base Chrome Refractor",
      "chase_probability": 0.0011389521640091116,
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      "packs_to_50": 609,
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      "packs_to_90": 2021,
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      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
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      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Bowman_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1776281698",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Bowman_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1776281698",
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    {
      "product_id": "2025-26-topps-basketball-hanger-box-ea",
      "category": "basketball",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Topps Basketball",
      "format": "Hanger Box EA",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "packs_to_50": 14,
      "packs_to_75": 28,
      "packs_to_90": 45,
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      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_26_Topps_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1759325369",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_26_Topps_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1759325369",
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    {
      "product_id": "2025-26-topps-basketball-hobby",
      "category": "basketball",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Topps Basketball",
      "format": "Hobby",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "msrp_usd": null,
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      "chase_definition": "Base Gold parallel",
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      "packs_to_50": 60,
      "packs_to_75": 120,
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      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
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      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_26_Topps_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1759325369",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_26_Topps_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1759325369",
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    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-26-topps-basketball-hta-jumbo",
      "category": "basketball",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Topps Basketball",
      "format": "HTA Jumbo",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
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      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": "Base Gold parallel",
      "chase_probability": 0.14285714285714285,
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      "packs_to_50": 5,
      "packs_to_75": 9,
      "packs_to_90": 15,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
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      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_26_Topps_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1759325369",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_26_Topps_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1759325369",
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      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:7 for Base Gold parallel in the exact HTA Jumbo column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-26-topps-basketball-mega-box-ea",
      "category": "basketball",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Topps Basketball",
      "format": "Mega Box EA",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_26_Topps_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1759325369",
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    {
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      "release_year": 2025,
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      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_26_Topps_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1759325369",
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      "release_name": "2025-26 Topps Chrome Basketball",
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      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Topps_Chrome_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1769176241",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Topps_Chrome_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1769176241",
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    {
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      "category": "basketball",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Topps Chrome Basketball",
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      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Topps_Chrome_Basketball_Odds.pdf?v=1769176241",
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    {
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      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Topps Chrome Basketball",
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    {
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      "manufacturer": "Topps",
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      "format": "HTA Sapphire",
      "release_year": 2025,
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    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-chrome-football-breaker-delight",
      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Chrome Football",
      "format": "Breaker Delight",
      "release_year": 2025,
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      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Chrome Football",
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    {
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      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Chrome Football",
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      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Chrome_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1776193199",
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    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-chrome-football-hobby",
      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Chrome Football",
      "format": "Hobby",
      "release_year": 2025,
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      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Chrome_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1776193199",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Chrome_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1776193199",
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    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-chrome-football-hta-jumbo",
      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Chrome Football",
      "format": "HTA Jumbo",
      "release_year": 2025,
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      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Chrome_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1776193199",
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    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-chrome-football-hta-jumbo-first-day-issue",
      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Chrome Football",
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      "chase_definition": "Base Refractor",
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      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
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      "packs_to_75": 2,
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    {
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      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Chrome Football",
      "format": "Mega Box EA",
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      "release_status": "released",
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      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
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      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Chrome_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1776193199",
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    {
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      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Chrome Football",
      "format": "Value Box EA",
      "release_year": 2025,
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      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Chrome_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1776193199",
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    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-cosmic-chrome-football-hobby",
      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Cosmic Chrome Football",
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      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Cosmic_Chrome_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1781722934",
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    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-cosmic-chrome-football-lunar",
      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Cosmic Chrome Football",
      "format": "Lunar",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
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    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-finest-football-breaker-delight",
      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Finest Football",
      "format": "Breaker Delight",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "chase_definition": "Base Common Refractor",
      "chase_probability": 0.3333333333333333,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 2,
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      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
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      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0871/8916/0120/files/2025_Topps_Finest_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1782311781",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0871/8916/0120/files/2025_Topps_Finest_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1782311781",
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    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-finest-football-hobby",
      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Finest Football",
      "format": "Hobby",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "chase_definition": "Base Common Refractor",
      "chase_probability": 0.16666666666666666,
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      "packs_to_50": 4,
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      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
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      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0871/8916/0120/files/2025_Topps_Finest_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1782311781",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0871/8916/0120/files/2025_Topps_Finest_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1782311781",
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    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-resurgence-football-delight",
      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Resurgence Football",
      "format": "Delight",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "chase_definition": "Base Refractor",
      "chase_probability": 1,
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      "packs_to_50": 1,
      "packs_to_75": 1,
      "packs_to_90": 1,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
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      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
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      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Resurgence_Football_Odds_1.pdf?v=1785355384",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Resurgence_Football_Odds_1.pdf?v=1785355384",
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    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-resurgence-football-hobby",
      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Resurgence Football",
      "format": "Hobby",
      "release_year": 2025,
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      "chase_definition": "Base Refractor",
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      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 3,
      "packs_to_75": 5,
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      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Resurgence_Football_Odds_1.pdf?v=1785355384",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Resurgence_Football_Odds_1.pdf?v=1785355384",
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    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-resurgence-football-mega",
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      "manufacturer": "Topps",
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      "release_year": 2025,
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      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
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      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Resurgence_Football_Odds_1.pdf?v=1785355384",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Resurgence_Football_Odds_1.pdf?v=1785355384",
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    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-resurgence-football-value",
      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Resurgence Football",
      "format": "Value",
      "release_year": 2025,
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      "chase_definition": "Base Refractor",
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      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
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      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Resurgence_Football_Odds_1.pdf?v=1785355384",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Topps_Resurgence_Football_Odds_1.pdf?v=1785355384",
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    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-signature-class-football-hobby",
      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Signature Class Football",
      "format": "Hobby",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
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      "hit_definition": null,
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      "chase_definition": "Veteran Class Autograph",
      "chase_probability": 0.009009009009009009,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 77,
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      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
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      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Signature_Class_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1781876271",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Signature_Class_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1781876271",
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    {
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      "manufacturer": "Topps",
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      "format": "Jumbo",
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      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": "Veteran Class Autograph",
      "chase_probability": 0.125,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 6,
      "packs_to_75": 11,
      "packs_to_90": 18,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Signature_Class_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1781876271",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Signature_Class_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1781876271",
      "odds_source_sha256": "3b3321e28520dc7104a9a5f80a95513cf73c21ceca6d6770ade37e20564dac65",
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:8 for Veteran Class Autograph in the exact Jumbo column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-signature-class-football-mega-se",
      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Signature Class Football",
      "format": "Mega SE",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
      "packs_per_box": null,
      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": "Veteran Class Autograph",
      "chase_probability": 0.009174311926605505,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 76,
      "packs_to_75": 151,
      "packs_to_90": 250,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Signature_Class_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1781876271",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Signature_Class_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1781876271",
      "odds_source_sha256": "3b3321e28520dc7104a9a5f80a95513cf73c21ceca6d6770ade37e20564dac65",
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:109 for Veteran Class Autograph in the exact Mega SE column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-signature-class-football-value-box-ea",
      "category": "football",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Signature Class Football",
      "format": "Value Box EA",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
      "packs_per_box": null,
      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": "Veteran Class Autograph",
      "chase_probability": 0.007633587786259542,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 91,
      "packs_to_75": 181,
      "packs_to_90": 301,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Signature_Class_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1781876271",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_Signature_Class_Football_Odds.pdf?v=1781876271",
      "odds_source_sha256": "3b3321e28520dc7104a9a5f80a95513cf73c21ceca6d6770ade37e20564dac65",
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:131 for Veteran Class Autograph in the exact Value Box EA column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "a-fist-of-divine-speed-op-11-booster-pack",
      "category": "one-piece",
      "manufacturer": "Bandai",
      "release_name": "A Fist of Divine Speed [OP-11]",
      "format": "Booster pack",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": "2025-06-06",
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
      "packs_per_box": null,
      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
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      "hit_definition": null,
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      "chase_definition": null,
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      "packs_to_50": null,
      "packs_to_75": null,
      "packs_to_90": null,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://en.onepiece-cardgame.com/products/boosters/op11.php",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "adventure-on-kami-s-island-op15-eb04-booster-pack",
      "category": "one-piece",
      "manufacturer": "Bandai",
      "release_name": "Adventure on Kami's Island [OP15-EB04]",
      "format": "Booster pack",
      "release_year": 2026,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": "2026-04-03",
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
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      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
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      "packs_to_75": null,
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      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
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      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
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      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://en.onepiece-cardgame.com/products/boosters/op15-eb04.php",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "anime-25th-collection-eb-02-booster-pack",
      "category": "one-piece",
      "manufacturer": "Bandai",
      "release_name": "Anime 25th Collection [EB-02]",
      "format": "Booster pack",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": "2025-05-09",
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      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
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      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
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      "hit_definition": null,
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      "packs_to_50": null,
      "packs_to_75": null,
      "packs_to_90": null,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://en.onepiece-cardgame.com/products/boosters/eb02.php",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "carrying-on-his-will-op-13-booster-pack",
      "category": "one-piece",
      "manufacturer": "Bandai",
      "release_name": "Carrying on His Will [OP-13]",
      "format": "Booster pack",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": "2025-11-07",
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
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      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
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      "probability_basis": null,
      "packs_to_50": null,
      "packs_to_75": null,
      "packs_to_90": null,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://en.onepiece-cardgame.com/products/boosters/op13/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "legacy-of-the-master-op-12-booster-pack",
      "category": "one-piece",
      "manufacturer": "Bandai",
      "release_name": "Legacy of the Master [OP-12]",
      "format": "Booster pack",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": "2025-08-22",
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
      "packs_per_box": null,
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      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": null,
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      "packs_to_50": null,
      "packs_to_75": null,
      "packs_to_90": null,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://en.onepiece-cardgame.com/products/boosters/op12.php",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "one-piece-card-the-best-vol-2-prb-02-booster-pack",
      "category": "one-piece",
      "manufacturer": "Bandai",
      "release_name": "One Piece Card The Best Vol. 2 [PRB-02]",
      "format": "Booster pack",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": "2025-10-03",
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
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      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
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      "probability_basis": null,
      "packs_to_50": null,
      "packs_to_75": null,
      "packs_to_90": null,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://en.onepiece-cardgame.com/products/boosters/prb02.php",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "one-piece-heroines-edition-eb-03-booster-pack",
      "category": "one-piece",
      "manufacturer": "Bandai",
      "release_name": "One Piece Heroines Edition [EB-03]",
      "format": "Booster pack",
      "release_year": 2026,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": "2026-02-20",
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
      "packs_per_box": null,
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      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": null,
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      "probability_basis": null,
      "packs_to_50": null,
      "packs_to_75": null,
      "packs_to_90": null,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://en.onepiece-cardgame.com/products/boosters/eb03.php",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "royal-blood-op-10-booster-pack",
      "category": "one-piece",
      "manufacturer": "Bandai",
      "release_name": "Royal Blood [OP-10]",
      "format": "Booster pack",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": "2025-03-21",
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
      "packs_per_box": null,
      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
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      "probability_basis": null,
      "packs_to_50": null,
      "packs_to_75": null,
      "packs_to_90": null,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://en.onepiece-cardgame.com/products/boosters/op10.php",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "the-azure-sea-s-seven-op14-eb04-booster-pack",
      "category": "one-piece",
      "manufacturer": "Bandai",
      "release_name": "The Azure Sea's Seven [OP14-EB04]",
      "format": "Booster pack",
      "release_year": 2026,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": "2026-01-16",
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
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      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
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      "chase_definition": null,
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      "packs_to_50": null,
      "packs_to_75": null,
      "packs_to_90": null,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://en.onepiece-cardgame.com/products/boosters/op14-eb04.php",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "the-time-of-battle-op-16-booster-pack",
      "category": "one-piece",
      "manufacturer": "Bandai",
      "release_name": "The Time of Battle [OP-16]",
      "format": "Booster pack",
      "release_year": 2026,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": "2026-06-12",
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
      "packs_per_box": null,
      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": null,
      "chase_probability": null,
      "probability_basis": null,
      "packs_to_50": null,
      "packs_to_75": null,
      "packs_to_90": null,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://en.onepiece-cardgame.com/products/op16.html",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "mega-evolution-ascended-heroes-booster-bundle",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Mega Evolution—Ascended Heroes",
      "format": "Booster Bundle",
      "release_year": 2026,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
      "packs_per_box": null,
      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": null,
      "chase_probability": null,
      "probability_basis": null,
      "packs_to_50": null,
      "packs_to_75": null,
      "packs_to_90": null,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/ascended-heroes/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "mega-evolution-booster-display",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Mega Evolution",
      "format": "Booster Display",
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      "release_status": "released",
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      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
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      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/mega-evolution/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "mega-evolution-chaos-rising-booster-display",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising",
      "format": "Booster Display",
      "release_year": 2026,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
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      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/chaos-rising/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
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      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "mega-evolution-perfect-order-booster-display",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Mega Evolution—Perfect Order",
      "format": "Booster Display",
      "release_year": 2026,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/perfect-order/",
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      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "mega-evolution-phantasmal-flames-booster-display",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Mega Evolution—Phantasmal Flames",
      "format": "Booster Display",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/phantasmal-flames/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-black-bolt-booster-bundle",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—Black Bolt",
      "format": "Booster Bundle",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/black-white/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-black-bolt-elite-trainer-box",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—Black Bolt",
      "format": "Elite Trainer Box",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/black-white/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
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      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-destined-rivals-booster-display",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—Destined Rivals",
      "format": "Booster Display",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
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      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/destined-rivals/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-journey-together-booster-display",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—Journey Together",
      "format": "Booster Display",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
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      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/journey-together/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
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      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-paldean-fates-booster-bundle",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—Paldean Fates",
      "format": "Booster Bundle",
      "release_year": 2024,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/paldean-fates/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
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      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-paldean-fates-elite-trainer-box",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—Paldean Fates",
      "format": "Elite Trainer Box",
      "release_year": 2024,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/paldean-fates/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
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      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-prismatic-evolutions-booster-bundle",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—Prismatic Evolutions",
      "format": "Booster Bundle",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
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      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
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      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/prismatic-evolutions/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-prismatic-evolutions-elite-trainer-box",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—Prismatic Evolutions",
      "format": "Elite Trainer Box",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "packs_to_90": null,
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      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
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      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/prismatic-evolutions/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-shrouded-fable-booster-bundle",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—Shrouded Fable",
      "format": "Booster Bundle",
      "release_year": 2024,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
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      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/shrouded-fable/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-stellar-crown-booster-display",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—Stellar Crown",
      "format": "Booster Display",
      "release_year": 2024,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
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      "price_observed_at": null,
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      "cards_per_pack": null,
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      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/stellar-crown/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-surging-sparks-booster-display",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—Surging Sparks",
      "format": "Booster Display",
      "release_year": 2024,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
      "packs_per_box": null,
      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": null,
      "chase_probability": null,
      "probability_basis": null,
      "packs_to_50": null,
      "packs_to_75": null,
      "packs_to_90": null,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/surging-sparks/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-temporal-forces-booster-display",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—Temporal Forces",
      "format": "Booster Display",
      "release_year": 2024,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
      "packs_per_box": null,
      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": null,
      "chase_probability": null,
      "probability_basis": null,
      "packs_to_50": null,
      "packs_to_75": null,
      "packs_to_90": null,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/temporal-forces/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-twilight-masquerade-booster-display",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—Twilight Masquerade",
      "format": "Booster Display",
      "release_year": 2024,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
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      "cards_per_pack": null,
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      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
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      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": null,
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      "packs_to_50": null,
      "packs_to_75": null,
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      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
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      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/twilight-masquerade/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-white-flare-booster-bundle",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—White Flare",
      "format": "Booster Bundle",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
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      "packs_to_50": null,
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      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/black-white/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "scarlet-violet-white-flare-elite-trainer-box",
      "category": "pokemon",
      "manufacturer": "The Pokemon Company International",
      "release_name": "Scarlet & Violet—White Flare",
      "format": "Elite Trainer Box",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "packs_to_50": null,
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      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "unavailable",
      "odds_source_type": "unavailable",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://tcg.pokemon.com/en-us/expansions/black-white/",
      "odds_source_url": null,
      "odds_source_sha256": null,
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official product source confirms the named physical configuration, but no manufacturer-published product-and-format-specific pack probability was found in the inspected source. Missing odds remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-26-topps-uefa-club-competitions-hanger",
      "category": "soccer",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Topps UEFA Club Competitions",
      "format": "Hanger",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
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      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": "Base Cards Holo Foil",
      "chase_probability": 0.1,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 7,
      "packs_to_75": 14,
      "packs_to_90": 22,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
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      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Topps_UCC_Club_Competitions_Odds_v2.pdf?v=1769110018",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Topps_UCC_Club_Competitions_Odds_v2.pdf?v=1769110018",
      "odds_source_sha256": "6eebedef2ca56c4b5b2b93af86ffaede106105b94891f45b06219905b6489151",
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:10 for Base Cards Holo Foil in the exact Hanger column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-26-topps-uefa-club-competitions-hobby",
      "category": "soccer",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Topps UEFA Club Competitions",
      "format": "Hobby",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
      "packs_per_box": null,
      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": "Base Cards Neon Yellow Flowfractor",
      "chase_probability": 0.041666666666666664,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 17,
      "packs_to_75": 33,
      "packs_to_90": 55,
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      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Topps_UCC_Club_Competitions_Odds_v2.pdf?v=1769110018",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Topps_UCC_Club_Competitions_Odds_v2.pdf?v=1769110018",
      "odds_source_sha256": "6eebedef2ca56c4b5b2b93af86ffaede106105b94891f45b06219905b6489151",
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:24 for Base Cards Neon Yellow Flowfractor in the exact Hobby column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-26-topps-uefa-club-competitions-london-store",
      "category": "soccer",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Topps UEFA Club Competitions",
      "format": "London Store",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
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      "cards_per_pack": null,
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      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
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      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": "Base Cards Neon Yellow Flowfractor",
      "chase_probability": 0.041666666666666664,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 17,
      "packs_to_75": 33,
      "packs_to_90": 55,
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      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
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      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Topps_UCC_Club_Competitions_Odds_v2.pdf?v=1769110018",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Topps_UCC_Club_Competitions_Odds_v2.pdf?v=1769110018",
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      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:24 for Base Cards Neon Yellow Flowfractor in the exact London Store column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-26-topps-uefa-club-competitions-value",
      "category": "soccer",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025-26 Topps UEFA Club Competitions",
      "format": "Value",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "cards_per_pack": null,
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      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": "Base Cards Holo Foil",
      "chase_probability": 0.1,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 7,
      "packs_to_75": 14,
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      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Topps_UCC_Club_Competitions_Odds_v2.pdf?v=1769110018",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025-26_Topps_UCC_Club_Competitions_Odds_v2.pdf?v=1769110018",
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    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-chrome-mls-hanger",
      "category": "soccer",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Chrome MLS",
      "format": "Hanger",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
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      "msrp_usd": null,
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      "chase_definition": null,
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      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_MLS_Chrome_Odds.pdf?v=1777050150",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_MLS_Chrome_Odds.pdf?v=1777050150",
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      "confidence_notes": "The official Topps PDF includes the Hanger configuration, but does not list Base Cards Refractor for that column; no threshold is calculated."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-chrome-mls-hobby",
      "category": "soccer",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Chrome MLS",
      "format": "Hobby",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
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      "chase_definition": "Base Cards Refractor",
      "chase_probability": 0.16666666666666666,
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      "packs_to_50": 4,
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      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
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      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_MLS_Chrome_Odds.pdf?v=1777050150",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_MLS_Chrome_Odds.pdf?v=1777050150",
      "odds_source_sha256": "31a967fe90427c3c35e2eca4b392330a4f01bcad61d430fabf730889c6cd5d01",
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      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:6 for Base Cards Refractor in the exact Hobby column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-chrome-mls-mania",
      "category": "soccer",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Chrome MLS",
      "format": "Mania",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
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      "cards_per_pack": null,
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      "chase_definition": "Base Cards Refractor",
      "chase_probability": 1,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 1,
      "packs_to_75": 1,
      "packs_to_90": 1,
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      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
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      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_MLS_Chrome_Odds.pdf?v=1777050150",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_MLS_Chrome_Odds.pdf?v=1777050150",
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    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-chrome-mls-sapphire",
      "category": "soccer",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Chrome MLS",
      "format": "Sapphire",
      "release_year": 2025,
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      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
      "packs_per_box": null,
      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": null,
      "chase_probability": null,
      "probability_basis": null,
      "packs_to_50": null,
      "packs_to_75": null,
      "packs_to_90": null,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": false,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_MLS_Chrome_Odds.pdf?v=1777050150",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_MLS_Chrome_Odds.pdf?v=1777050150",
      "odds_source_sha256": "31a967fe90427c3c35e2eca4b392330a4f01bcad61d430fabf730889c6cd5d01",
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "The official Topps PDF includes the Sapphire configuration, but does not list Base Cards Refractor for that column; no threshold is calculated."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2025-topps-chrome-mls-value",
      "category": "soccer",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2025 Topps Chrome MLS",
      "format": "Value",
      "release_year": 2025,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
      "packs_per_box": null,
      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": "Base Cards Refractor",
      "chase_probability": 0.14285714285714285,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 5,
      "packs_to_75": 9,
      "packs_to_90": 15,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_MLS_Chrome_Odds.pdf?v=1777050150",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0662/9749/5709/files/2025_MLS_Chrome_Odds.pdf?v=1777050150",
      "odds_source_sha256": "31a967fe90427c3c35e2eca4b392330a4f01bcad61d430fabf730889c6cd5d01",
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:7 for Base Cards Refractor in the exact Value column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
    },
    {
      "product_id": "2026-topps-finest-premier-league-standard-pack",
      "category": "soccer",
      "manufacturer": "Topps",
      "release_name": "2026 Topps Finest Premier League",
      "format": "Standard pack",
      "release_year": 2026,
      "release_status": "released",
      "release_date": null,
      "msrp_usd": null,
      "observed_price_usd": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "price_observed_at": null,
      "price_source_url": null,
      "cards_per_pack": null,
      "packs_per_box": null,
      "guaranteed_hit_label": null,
      "guaranteed_hits_per_box": null,
      "hit_definition": null,
      "any_hit_probability": null,
      "chase_definition": "Common Base Card Checkerboard Refractor",
      "chase_probability": 0.3333333333333333,
      "probability_basis": "independent_per_pack",
      "packs_to_50": 2,
      "packs_to_75": 4,
      "packs_to_90": 6,
      "cost_to_50_usd": null,
      "cost_to_75_usd": null,
      "cost_to_90_usd": null,
      "raw_card_ev_usd": null,
      "ev_model_source_url": null,
      "sample_size_packs": null,
      "evidence_tier": "official_odds",
      "odds_source_type": "manufacturer",
      "threshold_calculation_eligible": true,
      "configuration_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0739/2015/1805/files/PL_FINEST_ODDS_Official.pdf?v=1774262754",
      "odds_source_url": "https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0739/2015/1805/files/PL_FINEST_ODDS_Official.pdf?v=1774262754",
      "odds_source_sha256": "348c236cd217734635e1c7a85356ecc925e9ec770dbfeffa0dea664283b89d5c",
      "source_checked_at": "2026-08-07",
      "confidence_notes": "Official Topps per-pack rate of 1:3 for Common Base Card Checkerboard Refractor in the exact Standard pack column. This is a component-class rate, not an exact-card probability."
    }
  ]
}